The wall

The only thing worse than drafting a player and having him hit the proverbial wall is drafting a player a year or two after he’s already hit the wall. Having a player hit the wall on you is largely a matter of bad luck — a once-productive player simply ran out of gas at your expense. Unless you brazenly ignored a bunch of red flags, the lack of foresight probably wasn’t your fault. But if you drafted a guy who had already slammed into the wall last season or earlier, it’s your own fault. That’s what you get for banking on a Steve McNair resurrection even though he’d played like a complete stiff for the last two or three years. And if either Joe Horn or Eric Moulds blighted your roster at any time this season, well, my friend, you need to reduce your consumption of fossil fuel.

Just to be clear, “hitting the wall” isn’t the same as proving to be a bust. Chargers WR Vincent Jackson and 49ers QB Alex Smith, for instance, aren’t hitting the wall — neither has gotten far enough in his career to even see the wall. “Hitting the wall” suggests that a player has actually achieved something. Jackson and Smith are stuck in quicksand, failing to deliver on perceived potential. But that’s not to say a younger player can’t hit the wall, as you’ll see in a minute.

Here are 10 players who’ve crashed into the wall in 2007. I offer a 99.9 percent guarantee that none of these players will ever again return to peak form, and thus it would be insane for you to draft any of them next season, since their high-profile names ensure that none of them will be draft-day bargains. Consider yourself absolved from blame if you own any of these players this season. But if you’re foolish enough to draft any of these players next year, you’ll be asked to report to the woodshed for a one-on-one consultation with a hickory switch.

Shaun Alexander — If he were a steak, he’d be charred on the outside, tough and gray on the inside. Alexander isn’t just done; he’s well-done. There were some signs of decline last season — most notably the 3.6-yard regular-season rushing average, well below his 2005 average of 5.1 yards per carry. But it was hard to tell whether it was due to the foot injury that sidelined him for six games last year or an overall decline. Alexander, a longtime TD machine, was still getting into the endzone at a good rate, rushing for seven TDs in 10 regular-season games, and he looked sharp in his final game of the season, running for 108 yards and two TDs in a playoff loss to the Bears. This year, Alexander is averaging 3.3 yards per carry, he hasn’t averaged more than 2.5 yards per carry in his last four games, he hasn’t scored a TD since Week Two, and he’s being booed in Seattle. It’s tempting to attribute Alexander’s poor numbers to a nagging knee sprain or to the decline of the Seahawks’ offensive line, but when you watch Alexander run, it’s painfully obvious that he’s no longer the MVP-caliber running back he was just a couple of years ago.

Larry Johnson — I wonder how the Chiefs feel about the decision to give L.J. that new $45 million contract, which includes $19 million in guaranteed money. The team gave him the new deal after asking him to handle the ball more than 800 times over the last two seasons, which is a little like leasing a car, driving it recklessly, rarely changing the oil, going way over the mileage limit, and then eventually buying out the lease. Johnson, currently out with a foot injury, is averaging 3.5 yards per carry this season and has scored four TDs in eight games after scoring 40 TDs over the last two seasons. Yes, the Chiefs’ offensive line has slipped, but Johnson hasn’t been anywhere near as good as he was in the 2005 and 2006 seasons, when he looked like a latter-day Jim Brown. L.J. may have a few decent seasons left in him, but it looks like the Chiefs burned him out by riding him so heavily over the last couple of seasons.

Rudi Johnson — In an injury-marred season, Johnson is averaging 2.6 yards per carry and has scored only once. His backup, Kenny Watson, is averaging 4.4 yards per carry, so you can’t blame the Bengals’ offensive line for Johnson’s shoddy per-carry average. Perhaps the lingering hamstring issues are entirely to blame for Johnson’s bad year, but I don’t think so. Now in his seventh season, Johnson is at the point in his career where a lot of running backs start to slow down. Don’t be surprised if Johnson is out as the lead runner in Cincinnati next season, replaced by either Watson or Kenny Irons, a promising youngster whose rookie season was lost to an August knee injury.

LaMont Jordan — He was terrific early in the season and then sustained a back injury, struggled and was benched in favor of Justin Fargas. Jordan himself says the back injury isn’t the source of his problems — he admits to missing too many reads and not running hard. Considering that Jordan has had only one good year in his seven-year career, it seems unwise to bank on a resurgence in 2008.

Warrick Dunn — Admittedly, per-carry average isn’t a sure sign of decline for an NFL running back, but it’s about as reliable a statistical indicator as there is. Dunn has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over his career, and this year he’s averaging 3.3 yards. He’s also averaging just 6.1 yards per reception — easily the lowest per-catch average of his career. Yes, he’s had a mini-revival over his last two games, rushing for 189 yards and two TDs, but before that, he hadn’t run for more than 62 yards in any game. Also, consider that his last two games have been against the Panthers and 49ers, both of whom rank in the bottom half of the league against the run. I’ve long been a supporter of the perennially underrated Dunn, but he’s 32 now, and the ride has to end sometime.

Santana Moss — There are two things you could usually take for grated with Santana Moss. The first was that he was going to get hurt at some point — over his seven-year pro career, he’s only had two years in which he played in all 16 games. The second was that he was going to be productive when healthy. Not surprisingly, he’s struggled with injuries this season, but the productive-when-healthy assumption has gone out the window. Moss has had one decent game (six catches for 89 yards against the Eagles in Week Two) and has been a nonfactor in the six other games in which he’s played. What’s puzzling is that Moss has been less effective playing with a good young quarterback, Jason Campbell, than he was playing with a bad old quarterback, Mark Brunell. I felt Moss was at a career crossroads heading into this season, and it seems clear that he’s taken a left turn toward Palookaville.

Thomas Jones — Jones has had a topsy-turvy NFL career, going from draft bust in Arizona to functional part-timer in Tampa to overachiever in Chicago, and now, to underachiever in New York. Jones’ yardage numbers aren’t terrible this year, and his inability to punch the ball into the endzone even once this season can be at least partially attributed to the Jets’ overall incompetence. Still, Jones’ season can be described in a single word: blah. Since he’ll be 30 when the 2008 season begins, there’s little reason to think there are better days ahead for him.

Chad Pennington — Pennington usually completes a high percentage of his passes and doesn’t throw a lot of interceptions, but his arm strength has always been an issue. There are 15 current starters at quarterback who average at least 7.0 yards per pass attempt. Pennington hasn’t averaged 7.0 yards per attempt since 2004. The Jets recognized Pennington’s limitations and turned the reins over to Kellen Clemens, who has a significantly higher ceiling. It wouldn’t surprise me if the savvy Pennington stayed in the league as a backup for five more years, but I don’t see him being anything more than a No. 2 for the rest of his career.

Cedric Benson — Benson proves that you don’t have to be a veteran to experience a crash into the wall. He was very good in a time-share with Thomas Jones last season — so good that the Bears were willing to ditch Jones and make Benson the main man. But Benson has flopped this season, averaging 3.0 yards per carry and showing nothing in terms of speed, power or elusiveness. And since he’s not exactly considered to be Mr. Congeniality in the Bears’ locker room, either, it’s hard to envision the Bears keeping Benson in a featured role. As good as Benson looked last year, it’s hard to figure out what happened to him. But watching him run this year, it’s hard to believe that he was a No. 4 overall draft pick in 2005. Benson is now a mediocre runner at best.

Olindo Mare — Stick a fork in him. Mare is just way too inaccurate on FG attempts to remain in the league. He was 26-of-36 on FG tries last season and is only 6-of-12 this season. Mare has 170 touchbacks over his 11-year career and might be able to latch on somewhere as a kickoff specialist next year, but I’d be stunned to see him kicking field goals for an NFL team next season.

No-huddle nuggets

The Seahawks may have a running back controversy on their hands, with Maurice Morris looking good in a 24-0 win over the 49ers Monday night while the injured and ineffective Shaun Alexander sat out. The guess here is that the Seahawks try to defer the controversy for another week or two by giving Alexander extra recovery time, which would mean that Morris would be a solid fantasy option for the next couple of weeks.

A lot of fantasy owners dropped L.J. Smith from their rosters while Smith was struggling to overcome a groin injury. But Smith says he finally feels good again, and last week he had four catches for 49 yards and a TD. He also had a fumble, but no matter: If you need to upgrade at tight end and Smith is available, grab him.

Rex Grossman is going to start for the Bears this week ahead of Brian Griese, who was injured against the Raiders last week but probably could have played this week. Despite his redemptive relief appearance against Oakland last week, Grossman is an extremely risky fantasy play going forward. It should also be noted that Grossman’s return to the lineup doesn’t bode well for Bears WR Muhsin Muhammad, who has never clicked with Grossman and was much more in sync with Griese.

Speaking of QB-WR chemistry, the return of QB David Garrard to the Jacksonville lineup makes WR Dennis Northcutt a viable emergency option for fantasy owners. Northcutt was Garrard’s favorite target early in the season, catching at least four passes in four of the Jaguars’ first five games. Then Garrard got hurt, Quinn Gray came in, and Northcutt fell off the map. By no means is Northcutt an attractive fantasy play even with Garrard back under center, but he’s a reasonable option if you’re desperate for WR help.

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