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Rating the rookies: RBs and QBs


"And so a new legend is born and a new name is added to the roster of those who make the world of fantasy the most exciting realm of all!"
--Stan Lee, Amazing Fantasy #15, August, 1962

If you didn't know already, Spider-Man 3 kicks off the summer blockbuster season this Friday. And those words above were written to conclude the first-ever comic book episode of your friendly neighborhood webslinger. Being drafted into the NFL is considerably different from being randomly selected to get superpowers from a radioactive arachnid, but what the sage of Marvel Comics wrote 45 years ago has applied to exciting offensive skill players entering the NFL ever since, from Gale Sayers three years later to Reggie Bush last year.

Reggie Bush wasn't the only dynamic rookie in 2006 -- other running backs such as Maurice Jones-Drew, Joseph Addai, Laurence Maroney, Wali Lundy, Leon Washington and DeAngelo Williams also were welcomed into "the world of fantasy." There also were some surprisingly good rookie wide receivers, including Reggie Bush's teammate Marques Colston, Greg Jennings and Santonio Holmes. And tight end Vernon Davis came on as a special player late. Even a typically unexciting position for fantasy rookies, quarterback, produced three viable starters in the season's second half: Vince Young, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler.

As many of those players get ready to declare "Excelsior!" for better things in Year 2, the class of '07 will be hard-pressed to match their combined immediate production. But that doesn't mean there aren't some "new legends" who are about to be born. Once again, fantasy owners shouldn't buy into the hype of offensive skill rookies, but instead should carefully examine potential for instant impact, giving great weight to how they fit into their new teams.

This week, let's look at the rookie running backs and quarterbacks who have been "added to NFL rosters," and consider which should be added to your fantasy rosters in the fall. Next week, we'll hit the rookie wide receivers, tight ends and specialists.

The Fantastic Four

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings. AP's story is likely to have the best ending of any 2007 NFL rookie. Like Reggie Bush, he comes in as the top running back drafted and will need to split carries with a hard-rushing veteran (Chester Taylor). But with his talents as a big-play runner and underrated receiver, Adrian Peterson should be on the field often enough for a real shot at a 1,000-plus total yards and an outside chance at double-digit TD totals. Brad Childress will find different ways to align and get the ball to Adrian Peterson -- and to support young QB Tarvaris Jackson -- and there will be ample opportunity for Steve Hutchinson and the Vikes' line to spring the rookie for some long runs -- 'nuff said. Draft AP as a No. 3 back; like Reggie Bush, he quickly could turn into a very nice No. 2

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills. Although Lynch is in the best backfield situation -- in terms of getting the majority of the carries -- there's a strong possibility Anthony Thomas will see much of the short-yardage work, meaning Lynch will be a much stronger option in leagues that lean a lot more toward yardage than TDs. I'm not as high on the Lynch-Man as others, but team location outweighs some of those talent concerns. Target Lynch starting around Round 4 as a No. 2 back, but don't be surprised if he produces more like a No. 3.

Chris Henry, RB, Titans. While Tennessee's draft has been knocked around as a weak one, the speedy Henry stands out as its best pick. He'll help spark the offense around Vince Young. With second-year back LenDale White returning, this Henry won't carry the entire burden of trying to replace Travis Henry. But White wasn't healthy enough to get on the field last season, which opens the door for Chris Henry to jump into action and reward from it. He's a blazer, but he must prove to be tough and sure-handed to take advantage of his favorable situation. Draft Henry as a No. 3 or No. 4 back, hoping he does enough in a committee to occasionally start as a No. 2 or in the flex.

Brandon Jackson, RB, Packers. After having great success over the years with another Nebraska running back (Ahman Green) who produced both as a rusher and receiver, it makes sense that Green Bay went for a similarly talented Cornhusker to help replace the man who often likened himself to Batman. The team has said it stands by Vernand Morency as the No. 1, but expect something similar to '06, only with Morency stepping into Green's "feature" role and Jackson taking over Morency's "relief" role -- often getting double-digit carries. The Packers' zone blocking scheme and improved line put both backs in position to be productive and viable fantasy options. Target Morency as your No. 3, and try to get Jackson a few rounds later. Then you'll be ready to go with whomever the Packers' true No. 1 is when you're in a pinch.

X-Men

Kenny Irons, RB, Bengals. A guy named Kenny Irons seems like he should be in the Avengers -- or for you DC fans, the Justice League. With injuries putting Chris Perry's NFL future in jeopardy and with Kenny Irons' speed and quickness, he can replace another Kenny (Watson) to emerge as a backup to another Auburn back (Rudi Johnson). Johnson has been durable, powerful and consistent for Cincy the past three years, but it was a good time to get more insurance for him. Watch the Bengals' depth chart closely in training camp, and if Kenny Irons is indeed the No. 2, look to "handcuff" him to Johnson.

Brian Leonard, FB/RB, Rams. Ray Rice got much national attention for resurgent Rutgers' running game, but it wouldn't have been nearly as productive without Leonard's versatility as a rusher and blocker. That said, it's hard to see how he fits into St. Louis' plans because the team already had four tight end/fullback types and two speedy third-down type backs. I guess it's somewhere in between, as someone who can step in and spell Steven Jackson with similar plays called. Watch the Rams' depth chart closely in training camp, and if Leonard is indeed the No. 2, look to "handcuff" him to Jackson.

Lorenzo Booker, RB, Dolphins. Miami lost one third-down speedster from Florida State when Travis Minor signed with the Rams, and replaced him with a faster, younger model. Booker has some Jones-Drew-type upside if he gets on the field, so he is someone to keep tabs on. Much has to happen, however, such as Ronnie Brown battling more injuries and Ricky Williams perhaps winding up elsewhere. A potential late-round flyer.

Tony Hunt, RB, Eagles. Like it did with Brian Westbrook from Villanova, Philly stayed in state to find his potential backup. Hunt was an underrated performer at Penn State, and his chances of being Westbrook's No. 2 over Correll Buckhalter are underestimated. A potential late-round handcuff.

Garrett Wolfe, RB, Bears. Scientist Hank Pym would be happy with the defending NFC champs going with a skilled Ant-Man (for you DC fans, replace those references with Ray Palmer and The Atom). Wolfe, last season's Division I leading rusher, who played not too far from Chicago in DeKalb, is part of the Jones-Drew effect -- a diminutive third-down dasher with the potential to reel off big runs if featured enough. Adrian Peterson (the other one) is set to be the backup to Cedric Benson, but Wolfe could see significant action if neither incumbent can provide the speed element without Thomas Jones. A potential late-round flyer.

Brady Quinn, QB, Browns. Of the rookie quarterbacks taken, Brady Quinn has enough in his supporting cast to do something in the second half of the season -- assuming he is starting over both Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson. Both No. 1 wide receiver Braylon Edwards and tight end Kellen Winslow can help many QBs produce better, and having fellow rookie Joe Thomas at left tackle is nice. Still, I'm always wary about relying on rookie QBs as anything more than third-string fantasy QBs. A potential midseason pickup.

JaMarcus Russell, QB, Raiders. JaMarcus Russell joins one of 2006's worst offenses but, like Brady Quinn, has some playmakers around him in Jerry Porter, Ronald Curry and fellow rookie Zach Miller, a promising tight end. A potential midseason pickup.

Michael Bush, RB, Raiders. Michael Bush is coming back from a big knee injury, but so is LaMont Jordan. And the jury is still out on whether former Colt Dominic Rhodes can hold up as a feature back at this stage of his career. It's the Raiders, so even with two productive veterans, you know their backfield situation is a little up in the air, especially if Michael Bush comes to camp and proves he is healthy enough to be the dominant power back he once was for Louisville. A potential midseason pickup.

Nothing "Amazing"

Antonio Pittman, RB, Saints. For the second consecutive season, New Orleans drafted a back from the team that lost the national championship game. In a better situation, Pittman would have been a very busy back, but behind both Michael Bush and Deuce McAllister, he should just hope to stick as the No. 3 instead of Aaron Stecker.

Dwayne Wright, RB, Bills; DeShawn Wynn, RB, Packers. Wright will be third (at best) on Buffalo's depth chart behind Lynch and Thomas, and Wynn will be third (at best) on Green Bay's depth chart behind Morency and Jackson.

Kenneth Darby, RB, Buccaneers. Considering the durability issues surrounding Cadillac Williams, Michael Pittman and Mike Alstott, Darby can't be completed ruled out of seeing significant action sometime during the season. Come fantasy draft time, however, you'll want to rank him somewhere near Terrence Trent D'Arby.

Kevin Kolb, QB, Eagles; John Beck, QB, Dolphins; Drew Stanton, QB, Lions. All three second-round quarterbacks, if they impress in camp with the athletic gifts that got them drafted that high, have a chance to cause some veterans ahead of them to be cut or end up as second-string quarterbacks. Even if all that happens, they won't have any fantasy value unless there's an injury -- considering the durability issues of Donovan McNabb, Kolb is the only one who shows up as a faint blip.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants; Thomas Clayton, RB, 49ers; Justise Hairston, RB, Patriots; Kolby Smith, RB, Chiefs; Jason Snelling, RB, Falcons. In addition to being five people who have never been in your kitchen, the question is, "Who are third-stringers (at best) who will need to make their mark on special teams?".

Troy Smith, QB, Ravens, Isaiah Stanback, QB, Cowboys; Jeff Rowe, QB, Bengals; Tyler Thigpen, QB, Vikings. Wow, when he won the Heisman at Ohio State, I bet Smith didn't expect to be mentioned with these other three quarterbacks anywhere. But, hey, that's college vs. pro, reality vs. fantasy for you. Smith eventually might start once Steve McNair retires and Kyle Boller leaves as a free agent, but for now, all of these quarterbacks are athletic projects ideal for beginning as third-stringers.

Trent Edwards, QB, Bills. I've heard in some places that Edwards will compete with J.P. Losman for a starting job. Um, did you see Losman's numbers last season? I would say 19 TDs to only 14 picks, 16 starts, a 62.5 completion percentage and a 84.4 passer rating are good enough for Losman to be the unquestioned starter. And, oh yeah, Craig Nall also remains in the backup picture.

Jordan Palmer, QB, Redskins. Facially, Palmer is a clone of brother Carson. That's about the only comparisons anyone will make to the Bengals' fantasy stud while Jordan tries to beat out veterans Mark Brunell and Todd Collins for a roster spot somewhere behind Jason Campbell.

 

 

 

 

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