The Cincinnati Bengals stumbled to a 7-9 record last season, thanks to a bumbling defense and a star-studded offense that underachieved. Cincinnati managed less than 24 points per game despite an offense with no fewer than five guys who were expected to be fantasy starters. Cincinnati will have plenty of fantasy talent again, but the defense will again be lousy, so don't count on a big improvement in the record.
QB: Carson Palmer put up big numbers last season, but was largely a fantasy disappointment. He threw for 4131 yards - the fifth-best total in the league - and 26 TDs. But six of those TDs came in one game, and Palmer failed to crack 200 passing yards four times. Plus, his 20 INTs tied for the league lead. Palmer is still a starting fantasy quarterback because he's got three great weapons and a balanced attack, but he's no longer a top-four QB. In his final five games last season he threw 5 TDs and 5 INTs. He's a lock for 25-30 TDs and 3800 yards - he's put up those numbers each of the past three seasons - but that late-season fade is scary. Especially since almost every one of Cincinnati's November and December contests are outdoors in northern cities.
RB: Rudi Johnson was another fantasy disappointment last season, though he has an excuse with nagging hamstring injuries. Still, Johnson had only 497 yards and 3 TDs in 11 games. If Johnson stays healthy, he should return to form of 2004-06, when he had at least 1200 yards and 7 TDs every season. He's only 28 and should have one or two good years left. Still, he's downgraded to a No. 2 back because of the injury risk. ... Kenny Watson rushed for 763 yards and 7 TDs in parts of 16 games last season. He'll take over if Johnson goes down, but don't draft him. He's no sure bet to surpass 1000 yards even if he's a fulltime starter.
WR: T.J. Houshmandzadeh caught 112 passes last season, tied for tops in the league (with Wes Welker). He had 1143 receiving yards and 12 TDs and has improved his catch, yardage and TD totals each of the past three seasons. So Houshmandzadeh should be a No. 1 fantasy receiver this season. Because he shares catches with Chad Johnson he's a low-tier No. 1, since you never know which one will have the breakout game on a given week. But Houshmandzadeh is consistent enough to start as a No. 1 every week. Johnson is more of a low No. 1 or high No. 2. He caught 93 passes for 1440 yards - third-best in the league - and 8 TDs. He's had at least 1200 yards and 7 TDs every year since 2003. Still, he's a headcase, which makes him a risk. You never know how he'll react if he isn't catching passes on a regular basis. That's the only reason he's not a high No. 1.
TE: Ben Utecht will add a dimension to Cincinnati's offense. Utecht caught 31 balls for 364 yards and 1 TD last season for Indianapolis - and that was as a backup. The Bengals have said they plan to throw a lot to Utecht, so count on those numbers rising. He'll be a low-level starter.
K: Shayne Graham was Cincinnati's most reliable fantasy starter last season, making 31 field goals, tied for second in the league. Graham's made at least 25 field goals every year since 2004, so he's consistent, even in lousy weather. Cincinnati will score more this season, so Graham is a high-level fantasy starter. I'd rate him No. 3, behind Nick Folk and Josh Brown.
D: Cincinnati had a paltry 22 sacks and 35 turnovers last season. The Bengals will try to live by outscoring opponents, not stopping them. So avoid their defense.
One more thing: Cincinnati's Week 14-16 schedule is tough: at Indianapolis, vs. Washington, at Cleveland. The Bengals also play Jacksonville, Pittsburgh and Baltimore in November. That schedule will make it tough for Johnson to rack up big numbers.
Sunday we'll move to the NFC South, with New Orleans and Carolina.
